Russia will get Crimea but the West still wins
Canada Goose Jackets Russia won’t willingly withdraw from Crimea and the West seems unlikely to force the matter, so the question remaining is how this reaches what appears to be a foregone conclusion, writes Ken Fraser. Canada Goose Jackets
canada goose uk black friday When responding to Russia’s military engagement in Crimea, US president Barack Obama said: “.” canada goose uk black friday
canada goose factory sale This is the key to understanding the current situation. Leaving aside the point that this statement might well be as true for the US and NATO as it is for Russian president Vladimir Putin, the core of the message here is that the US is not getting close to actually committing itself to protecting the canada goose lodge uk eastern leaning part of Ukraine. canada goose factory sale
What Obama is saying to Putin in canada goose shop europe this speech is that, as far as the US is concerned, Russia may go ahead and occupy Crimea and secure its access to the city of Sevastopol and basing for its Black Sea fleet. For the time being. In return for this effective partitioning of the country, NATO gets the installation of a friendly government in Kiev. This has the effect of clicking over another notch in the ratchet of encroachment of NATO influence into the former Soviet republics. Putin knows he has lost this notch, but everyone knows that asking him to give up Sevastopol is asking too much.
canada goose coats on sale Of course, the US cannot simply agree to all this in public, which is why the message is coded in these terms. It will still have to protest, and strongly. It might boycott the G8 in Sochi. There may be cooling diplomatic relations and a certain amount of isolation. The UN will express “grave concerns”. Fine statements of principal will be mandatory. Hence Obama’s insubstantial statements that “any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would be a profound interference in matters that must be determined by the Ukrainian people”, and, “The Ukrainian people have also reminded us that human beings have a human universal right to determine their own future.” canada goose coats on sale
Canada Goose Outlet These are the “costs” to which Obama is referring. In a few years everyone will have forgotten about all this and relations can return to normal with the new reality in place. The costs, in other words, will be bearable, and may be minimal. Canada Goose Outlet
Incidentally, note the terminology of the democratic future. The US supports the right of the Ukrainian people to determine their own future, as long as that future is democratic and broadly consistent with Western consumerist individualism. The Russians can make a similar claim about the self determination of Russian speaking Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Hence Putin’s statement that “Moscow reserved the right to protect its own interests and those of Russian speakers in the event of violence breaking out in eastern Ukraine and Crimea”. These are classic irredentist tropes.
This whole discourse will be crystal clear in the Kremlin, which is part of the point. Everybody knows that it would be a bad idea to push Putin into a position where he has to resist. Russian withdrawal from what it has now occupied would be a potentially mortal blow to Putin’s career and to his project of reviving the Russian Bear. He has everything to lose. He can’t take a step back, and this makes him dangerous.
The decision, I suggest, has already been made. Why? Because it is the only solution acceptable to both sides, and, let’s be clear: while the situation on the ground is messy, there are really only two sides in this grander game. One difficulty for canada goose jacket uk both canada goose outlet sides is to achieve the end result without having to go through the tedious and unpopular process of a bloody civil war. Such a scenario can be avoided by having the issue played out in civilised fashion among those who really decide what happens. But whether it comes about through war or diplomacy, the eventual outcome will probably be the same (though war remains a highly uncertain business).
And then, of course, there are all those intercontinental missiles. This is the end game that really keeps policy makers awake at night, and is the underlying structural imperative to settle the matter. This means no red lines from the White House. It means “costs”, not “all necessary means”. It means “support for”, not a guarantee of, Ukrainian territorial integrity. It means the Russians know that, whatever the rhetoric from Western leaders, they are highly unlikely to go any nearer to the brink of war than Putin has already taken them. https://www.fanclub-fulton-smith.de This means he gets Crimea, but the slow strangling of the Bear continues. NATO still wins. It is manoeuvring with knights and bishops. Putin has had to bring out his queen.
Ken Fraser is currently coordinating a course on International Relations Theory at the Australian National University. View his full canada goose black friday sales toronto profile here.
So Claudius(4.26pm), finally getting what the problem was in 1973 in Chile?
Since Yuri Andropov had been running both the KGB and Allende for canada goose outlet china years. Allende’s Swiss account was stuffed with millions of dollars (when gold was only $US25 an ounce) and Yuri knew where more than the bodies were being buried. The KGB had plenty of interesting photos that Sally The Perv was NOT keen on seeing published in The News of The World.
When Allende became President (34% of the vote. This looking like a mandate to the Luvvies?) and immediately set about preparing South Pacific Naval bases for his Soviet paymasters, H. Kissinger, Nobel Peace Prize Winner was indeed having none of it. Allende the creep just had to go.
Bye bye Barry?
Gee Ken I really like your line that reads
” One difficulty for both sides is to achieve the end result without having to go through the tedious and unpopular process of a bloody civil war.”
h they are so tedious and unpopular aren’t they all those car bombs, snipers, hospital bombings, civilians casualties, wailing and distressed families, mass killings, torture, war crimes, insurgents that hague yawn
Canada Goose Coats On Sale Just goes on and on boring to say the least why would Putin or anyone in NATO want one of these send you to sleep and wastes all those canada goose outlet rubles or Euros. Canada Goose Coats On Sale
Good pictures for the telly though reporters get to wear flak jackets, the west can groan at all those unfortunate souls dodging bullets on the way to get bread and water. BUt the novelty soon wears off until the post war redemption movies hit the video lists.
Canada Goose sale Actually civil wars are so tedious and unpopular they should be banned from sale and use by political despots taken off the list of options. More exciting options please like protracted peace settlements and diplomacy yeah that’s exciting and really popular for the punters. Canada Goose sale
03 Mar 2014 4:20:23pm
If Ukrainian nationals hit the pipeline, they will be hurting millions of Europeans far more than they hurt Russia. The EU is a trading consortium above all else. They might even help fund the anti terrorist forces needed to prevent or react to such attacks.
Besides. At best, the revolutionaries in Kiev are willing to use fireworks and Molotov’s to get their way. And only with a howling mob at their back and when their enemies are too afraid to confront them.
Canada Goose online The Crimeans, by contrast, are willing to resort to axe handles, kalashnikovs and Russia. My canada goose baby uk money is on them. Canada Goose online
04 Mar 2014 12:10:37pm
Thank god, the irony of the west telling Vlad not to invade at will. George Orwell has ensured that we don’t have access to the information that would make the distinction possible. I just hope that Vlad doesn’t need to kill too many people to get what he wants, and that he won’t kill indescriminately like the Americans always do.
Peter of Melbourne
If the scenario painted by you is true, then I know it is not just Russia alone gets pissed off, but all the down stream customers of the gas supplies will be even more so.
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